It is difficult and subjective to identify the single greatest foreign danger to the US since threats come in many forms and develop gradually. However, rising geopolitical rivalry, especially between Russia and China, represents one of the most serious possible dangers to the United States. The United States’ future foreign policy will be significantly affected by the current geopolitical climate.
Increased International Rivalry
The return of Russia as an international power and China’s fast economic development and modernization of its army and aggressive foreign policy everything represents serious threats to US hegemony and interests. Territorial conflicts, cyber espionage, disinformation operations, and attempts to extend their area of influence are just a few examples of the acts taken by both nations that have caused worry among the United States and its closest allies (Anwar, 2020). The United States foreign policy is anticipated to change in various ways as a result of this rising geopolitical rivalry:
Priority on Strategy: Since the United States sees China and Russia as long-term threats to its position as world leaders, it is widely assumed that it would devote more resources to strategic rivalry with these countries. This might cause a reallocation of resources and focus from less-threatened areas, like the Middle East, into the Indo-Pacific peninsula and Europe, wherever these difficulties are most acute (Li, 2020).
Consolidating Alliances: The United States is expected to strengthen its partnerships and alliances with nations that share its values to offset the increasing power of China and Russia. This involves forging new connections with nations in the Indo-Pacific area and deepening ties with old allies in Europe with East Asia. The United States will try to form coalitions and cooperative frameworks to confront common security threats.
Competition in Technology: Innovation and technological progress are now critical success determinants on a global scale. Artificial intelligence, quantum computers, including cyber security are all areas where the United States is expected to increase investment. This entails measures like bolstering spending on R&D, encouraging the growth of ecosystems conducive to innovation, and legislating safeguards for sensitive data and intellectual property.
Trade and Economic Policies: The United States’ foreign policy will heavily emphasize economic rivalry. The United States may take a more aggressive stance in response to worries about IP theft, unfair trade practices, and stifled market access. Tariffs, export restrictions, investment screening processes, and the pursuit of new trade agreements are all possible means towards this end.
Involvement of Multiple Parties
The United States will still place a premium on its own national objectives, but it is anticipated that it would participate more actively in international organizations and alliances (Lipscy, 2020). In order to properly represent contemporary world circumstances and enhance rule-based institutions, it is necessary to restructure and revitalize international organizations like the UN, NATO, and “the World Trade Organisation”.
Figure 1: US international threats
(Source: pewresearch.org, 2020)
Emerging technology competition
The United States’ approach to international relations will be influenced by the global competition for leadership in coming technologies like 5G, AI, and quantum computing. The United States (US) will attempt to establish alliances and collaborations to establish guidelines, establish ethical frameworks, and safeguard the nation’s interest in the advancement of these innovations.
Cooperation and Competition: Striking a Balance
The United States will have to balance its pursuit of regions of shared interest and collaboration with its pursuit of areas of rivalry with China and Russia (Debre and Dijkstra, 2021). Included in this category are efforts to combat warming temperatures, nuclear proliferation, and global epidemics on a global scale. Nuanced politics and strategic thought are required to strike a balance between competitiveness and collaboration.
Reference
Anwar, D.F., 2020. Indonesia and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific. International Affairs, 96(1), pp.111-129. https://www.academia.edu/download/75450175/Indonesia_ASEAN_Outlook_on_Indo_Pacific_IA_vol_96_issue1_2020.pdf
Debre, M.J. and Dijkstra, H., 2021. Institutional design for a post-liberal order: why some international organizations live longer than others. European Journal of International Relations, 27(1), pp.311-339. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1354066120962183
Li, M., 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative: geo-economics and Indo-Pacific security competition. International Affairs, 96(1), pp.169-187. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mingjiang-Li-3/publication/350086588_Understanding_the_dynamics_of_the_Indo-Pacific_US-China_strategic_competition_regional_actors_and_beyond/links/61d256a9da5d105e5516619b/Understanding-the-dynamics-of-the-Indo-Pacific-US-China-strategic-competition-regional-actors-and-beyond.pdf
Lipscy, P.Y., 2020. COVID-19 and the Politics of Crisis. International Organization, 74(S1), pp.E98-E127. https://moodle2.units.it/pluginfile.php/392280/mod_resource/content/1/Covid-19-and-the-politics-of-crisis-expl.pdf
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